From January to February 2022, the total social logistics in my country was 51.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2% based on comparable prices. The growth rate of total social logistics continued the recovery trend since the fourth quarter of last year, and was significantly higher than that in 2019 before the epidemic. level, indicating that the overall logistics demand is still in the recovery channel, and the logistics operation has a stable start.
From the structural point of view, the effect of the policy of expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption continued to appear, and the demand for industrial and consumer logistics maintained rapid growth; externally, the global economic cycle had not returned to normal levels, and the demand for import logistics continued to decline.
The demand for industrial logistics is growing rapidly, and the new kinetic energy continues to increase
After the holiday, enterprises resumed work and production in an orderly manner, and the demand for industrial logistics maintained rapid growth. From January to February, the total logistics volume of industrial products increased by 7.5% year-on-year, 1.4 percentage points faster than the average growth rate in the two years from 2020 to 2021.
From the perspective of structure, the new kinetic energy continues to exert force, and its supporting role in industrial logistics demand is strengthened. High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing continued to grow rapidly. From January to February, the total logistics volume of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing increased by 14.4% and 9.6% year-on-year respectively, and the growth rate was 2.3 and 3.4% higher than that in December of the previous year. percent.
From an industry perspective, computer communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing, and instrumentation manufacturing all achieved double-digit growth, and the growth rate accelerated month-on-month. In addition, the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 7.2% year-on-year, 4.4 percentage points higher than that in December of the previous year. In particular, the output of new energy vehicles increased by 150.5% year-on-year, continuing to grow rapidly on the basis of the doubled growth of the previous year.
The recovery of consumer logistics demand for people's livelihood is accelerating, and new formats continue to exert force
From January to February, driven by online promotions such as the "Online New Year's Day", the logistics demand for consumer goods manufacturing at the production end accelerated to recover, and the demand for logistics such as e-commerce online shopping at the sales end continued. From the perspective of production, the consumer goods manufacturing industry has accelerated its recovery. From January to February, the logistics demand of the consumer goods manufacturing industry increased by 9.7% year-on-year, which was 5.2 percentage points faster than the average growth rate in the two years from 2020 to 2021.
From the point of view of the sales side, the role of new business forms is still obvious. From January to February, the total amount of goods logistics for units and residents increased by 10.5% year-on-year; among them, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 12.3% year-on-year, and the e-commerce logistics index showed that the first two months of The business volume of commercial logistics increased by more than 25% year-on-year, and the growth of rural business volume was also close to 25%, maintaining a rapid growth trend.
The increase in import prices fell, and the demand for logistics continued to fall
Since the fourth quarter of last year, international bulk commodity prices have continued to rise, which has had a certain impact on my country's related imports. Data show that from January to February, the import logistics fell by 3.5% year-on-year, the fifth consecutive month of decline. However, it should also be noted that the decline in import logistics has narrowed month-on-month since the beginning of this year. With the gradual recovery of my country's economy and supply chain in the future, the scale of imports will also expand.
From the perspective of import structure, due to factors such as sharp rise in prices, the import volume of crude oil, coal, lignite, and steel all declined, and the cumulative year-on-year declines were 4.9%, 14.0%, and 7.9% respectively; the import of meat in agricultural products Demand continued its downward trend, down 33% year-on-year.
The scale of the logistics market expands and the industry accelerates the integration
The scale of the logistics market continued to expand, and the industry consolidation accelerated. Since 2021, the market scale of the logistics industry has continued to expand, and the growth rate of the total revenue of the logistics industry has also maintained a relatively high level. From January to February, the total revenue of the logistics industry was 1.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, faster than the level in 2019 before the epidemic.
With the development and growth of new kinetic energy, the structure of logistics demand is constantly changing, which puts forward higher requirements for logistics services. Especially since the epidemic, the transformation and upgrading of the logistics industry has accelerated significantly, and the logistics market has entered a period of accelerated integration. The revenue share of my country's top 50 logistics companies has risen to the highest level in recent years, and the overall industry concentration has steadily increased. Subdivided areas such as express and express leading companies have further increased industry concentration through mergers and reorganizations. According to data from the State Post Bureau, the brand concentration index CR8 of express and parcel services in January-February was 85.3, a significant increase from the whole year and the same period in 2021.
The transportation business has grown rapidly, and the logistics enterprises are operating more efficiently. In terms of physical volume, the freight volume of the whole society in February increased by 15.5% year-on-year, of which road freight volume increased by 21.1%. From the perspective of corporate business, the total business index rose instead of falling in February, and the index rebounded by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month to 51.2%. Driven by factors such as the resumption of work and production since February, the physical volume of the logistics industry and the business volume of enterprises have maintained a good growth trend. At the same time, logistics has maintained a relatively efficient operation efficiency. In February, the capital turnover index and equipment utilization index in the logistics industry prosperity index both rebounded by 0.1 percentage points month-on-month, and remained above 50% for 6 consecutive months, reflecting that enterprises have actively improved the efficiency of capital use and the timeliness of logistics equipment operations. The tight balance between the supply and demand of personnel during the two months has played a certain adjustment role.
On the whole, the macro economy continued to recover in the first two months of this year, and the growth rate of logistics demand scale maintained a good level. From the perspective of market demand and expectations, the new orders index and business activity expectation index in the logistics industry climate index were 50.2% and 59.7%, respectively, both higher than the previous month. Among them, the business activity expectation index has been running at a high level of prosperity for two consecutive months. It shows that logistics companies have good expectations for the development of the industry.
However, it should also be noted that since March, unstable and uncertain factors have increased, and it has become more difficult for the logistics industry to ensure the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain.
From the perspective of the external environment, the impact of the epidemic in some regions is still ongoing, and the development levels of various industries and regions are uneven. At the same time, geopolitical conflicts are still continuing, which may bring about poor cross-border logistics channels in the European direction, tight transportation capacity, rising freight rates, and supply chain impact on key commodities.
From the perspective of market vitality, the operating costs of logistics enterprises are rising, and the pressure of rising raw material and labor costs has increased. The foundation for the overall recovery of the industry needs to be further consolidated:
First, the linkage between logistics service prices and costs is weak. Although the cost of raw materials such as oil prices continued to rise, the price of logistics services did not rise significantly. In February, the service price index of the logistics industry prosperity index did not rise but fell by 0.2 percentage points, and the road logistics and coastal bulk freight prices fell month-on-month, indicating that under the background of the current homogeneous competition in freight services, the industry's bargaining power is low, and the cost is lower than that of the previous month. There is a certain lag in the price linkage of logistics services.
Second, the profitability of the industry is further under pressure. Key survey data show that from January to February, the logistics business cost of key logistics enterprises increased by 17.3% year-on-year, and the cost per 100 yuan of operating income was 90.7 yuan, an increase of 1% year-on-year, and significantly higher than the average level of industrial enterprises above designated size. Among them, fuel costs and labor costs rose by more than double digits due to factors such as rising commodity prices and structural labor shortages. From the perspective of profitability, the loss of key logistics enterprises in January and February was nearly 30%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating that the operating pressure of logistics enterprises has increased, resulting in further compression of profit space. The overall revenue margin was around 3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year. Among them, the damage of small and medium-sized logistics enterprises is more obvious. The income profit rate of small and micro logistics enterprises is less than 3%, which is lower than the same period of the previous year, and there is a big gap between large and medium-sized enterprises.